Seniors Housing Market Update + New Team Member

Seniors Housing Market Update

For the first time since pre-COVID, seniors housing fundamentals are all moving in the right direction at the same time.

Demographics are accelerating. In 2025, average occupancies are above 90%, driven by non-discretionary demand.

Supply remains constrained. Older home closures continue, and new construction has slowed.

Capital is re-entering the conversation. Private and institutional groups are underwriting again. The largest public senior housing operators continue to focus on growth in 2026, supported by an expectation of multi-year growth of a conservative 4.0% per annum.

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The Macro Picture

The 75+ population cohort is expected to grow more than 40% over the next decade. The number of Canadians over 85 is projected to double by 2036, reaching approximately 1.6 million people. This comes at a time when government-funded long-term care home waitlists remain significantly stretched - Ontario alone has more than 50,000 individuals waiting for placement.

Development starts declined sharply through 2023 and 2024 as construction costs and financing conditions stalled new projects. In many Ontario markets, replacement cost remains well above where existing assets are trading.

Occupancy across stabilized retirement products has improved. Large operators have reported occupancy around 95% with stabilized margins achieving the low to mid 40% range.

Five Practical Implications

Strong operators with stabilized assets are regaining pricing power, particularly in supply-constrained submarkets

Heavily levered or underperforming properties are becoming recapitalization candidates

Buyers are underwriting operations first and real estate second

Expenses are being monitored and controlled - post-COVID labour shortages are easing. Temporary agency costs have dropped more than 50% over the past year

Growing competition means offering high-quality service and facilities is equally important as location

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New Team Member: Aman Rana

To deepen our coverage in this space, Aman Rana has joined our team to help lead our seniors housing platform.

Aman spent the past decade in real estate credit, most recently as Associate Director of Credit at Timbercreek. His experience underwriting complex transactions across Canada and the U.S. brings a capital markets lens to an asset class where structure matters as much as pricing.

Our objective is straightforward: provide owners and investors with clear, data-driven insight into their portfolios, how lenders are underwriting, and what strategic options are available.

Contact Aman directly:

Phone: 647-971-8384

Email: aman.rana@colliers.com

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