Multifamily in 2026: Trends, Challenges & Predictions

We're now 42 days into the new year.

The 2025 multifamily data has been tallied. But more importantly, we now have a reliable indication of how the first half of 2026 is likely to play out.

Momentum in Q4

Multifamily activity accelerated in Q4. Across the GTA, we saw roughly $990M in multifamily deal volume - nearly three times the activity in Q3. Notably, there was a huge increase in buyer diversity with 29 distinct purchasers across 39 deals.

This activity came as a result of three factors:

1. Alignment

Early 2025 was still plagued by the expectations set during the pandemic. It's taken time for the market to reset with the understanding that properties usually have to provide a return above a buyer's cost of capital.

Buyer demand remains strong with purchasers competing vigorously for deals, but now with an acknowledgment from vendors that rates are not going to zero again.

2. Financing Confidence

Financing is the backbone of Canadian multifamily. Confidence in execution improved materially in Q4, particularly around bond market stability and CMHC timelines.

In Q4 alone, our team closed four unrelated transactions where buyers had 10-day conditional periods and waived with confidence - including one firm deal with no conditions.

3. Management Frustration

Managing multifamily is difficult. Ongoing maintenance, tenant issues, regulatory complexity, and rising operating costs all require time and attention.

For some private owners, 2025 marked a turning point. Values had been maximized. The operational burden had increased. And the timing felt right.

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Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

Rents are increasingly site-specific. Broad narratives matter less than building-by-building realities.

Bid depth is back. Buyer diversity has returned across private capital, institutions, and non-profits.

Cap rates appear stabilized. The expansion phase seems largely behind us.

Non-profit and government-backed capital is becoming more influential. Patient, well-funded, and increasingly active.

Real capital expenditure is being rewarded. Buildings where owners invested thoughtfully are standing out.

Certainty of execution matters more than ever. A well-managed sale process and engagement with credible buyers are key.

2026 Predictions

Higher transaction volume, potentially setting post-2022 records as alignment continues

Institutional capital returning in a more meaningful way

Non-profits continuing to be aggressive, particularly in urban cores

Increased attention on seniors housing from large players

A rebound in the Canadian narrative, driven by capital inflows and long-term fundamentals

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